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Mr. Robin Hanson
110 Locksunart Way, \#6
Sunnyvale, CA  84087
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Dear Mr. Hanson:

	I wish your idea were feasible.  I would be inclined
to bet against all kinds of catastrophes, ecological and
otherwise.

	You should consult British bookie firms like Ladbroke's.
They offer odds on elections and other events.  You would be
interested in their criteria for when a proposition is worth
making a market on.  There's my problem with your idea.
I think the publicity and transaction costs are much to high.

	I think that \$ 10 for judging whether a proposition is
too vague is much too low.  It will run \$ 500 or more in most
cases.

	If you can greatly reduce transaction costs and keep the
matter entertaining you have a chance.  Consider a Usenet newsgroup
devoted to the futures market in ideas.  Lots of people would
track it just for the interest, and some would buy and sell the
futures.  It would require a program that could take orders
directly from people who had established credit.

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Sincerely,
John McCarthy
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